US midterm elections: How they work and what to expect

Marcus Newton
November 6, 2018

And while polls in the USA will not begin closing until well after the market closes, futures markets could be active overnight Tuesday depending on the outcome, with Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress or Republicans retaining control of both houses the outcomes which would likely create the most market volatility.

Americans have began casting ballots in the critical elections that mark the first major voter test of Donald Trump's presidency, with control of Congress in the balance.

All 435 seats in the US House are up for re-election.

According to Politico, President Trump and his allies have crafted a "face-saving" plan if Democrats capture a House majority - "tout Trump as the savior of Republicans in the Senate".

"If. Republicans forge new ground and pick up Senate seats, it will be on balance with the House that the president conceded last week Republicans probably wouldn't hold", Faulkner said.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political newsletter run by the University of Virginia Centre for Politics, predicted the Democrats would gain 34 seats in the House, 11 more than the 23 they need to form a majority.

But after their catastrophe of 2016, when Hillary Clinton was criticised for lacking a clear message to compete with "Make America great again", Democrats realised that a pure anti-Trump message would not be enough.

At a rally in Johnson City, Tennessee, in early October, Jessica Lotz, 33, and her fiance, Chad Lavery, 49, said Trump's immigration policies resonated with them. "I would love to get along, and I think after the election, a lot of things can happen", he said. "No nation can allow its borders to be overrun".

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"To say "look we tried this ... we can safely say it failed and now I'm a better choice".

"The survival of the country is going to depend on this election", he said as another man stopped for a moment to argue. "That is an invasion of our country". But despite that slim Republican majority, 10 Democratic senators are fighting for reelection in states Mr. Trump won in 2016, meaning the odds are stacked in favor of the GOP. "What kind of politics we expect is on the ballot". When you participate in the political process, you can be a check on bad behavior. What 6 November will tell us is this: Do more people wooed by Trump's fiery rhetoric on immigration turn up to vote or has he also succeeded in angering more immigration moderates to vote against him? "We hate the media", she said, "because they're the Democratic arm". Ted Cruz, the almost 4.9 million early voters has already surpassed turnout in the previous midterm elections. "Democrats are inviting caravan after caravan, illegal immigrants to flood into our country". Democrats seem to have the edge in the House while Republicans are trying to expand their lead in the Senate.

While he is not on the ballot, Trump acknowledged on Monday that the 2018 midterms represent a referendum on his presidency.

"Everything we have created and achieved is at stake on election day", Trump told a cheering crowd in Cleveland, as he kicked off his furious last round of campaigning.

Any move to fire Sessions or his deputy, Rod Rosenstein, would light a fire of controversy in Washington over the president's efforts to control or interfere in Special Counsel Robert Mueller III's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election and its coordination with USA persons toward that end. "I think there will be no difference here". Also feeling pressure are Republican incumbents in suburban Philadelphia and the Pittsburgh area, including House Speaker Mike Turzai of Allegheny County. Nationally, about 52 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's performance.

"In the midterms they were much more the pro-health insurance party than they were the anti-Trump party", said Bill Galston, a veteran of six presidential campaigns and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington. "That is particularly true when a president is unpopular, as this president is".

If ever there was an off-year election for younger voters to break tradition, this is it. However, not so obvious is the fact that Democrats tend to speak louder about their voting habits than Republicans do, possibly putting Republicans even higher than the Rasmussen poll indicates.

The GOP has a 47-vote advantage in the House; the Democrats would need to win 24 seats to take control.

Other reports by MaliBehiribAe

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